Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 2 cents lower on profit taking ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that harvest was 34% complete as of Sunday, with the normal pace at 26%. All of the 18 reported states are above their normal pace, with IA only moving 4% on the week to 15%. Condition ratings were down 1% to 68% in the good/ex categories, with the Brugler500 index down 2 at 373. Ratings in IA dropped 11 points, with NE down 5, IN 3 points lower and MN down 2. The weekly EIA report is delayed until Thursday due to Monday’s federal holiday. Thursday’s monthly USDA report is expected to show world corn carryout for 18/19 at 159.2 MMT, up 2.17 MMT from September.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.62, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.74, down 2 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn is at $3.81 1/2, down 2 cents

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.87 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Soybean futures are down 12 to 13 cents per bushel at midday. Nearby soy meal is down $3.10/ton and soy oil is off 36 points. NASS showed soybean harvest now lagging the average pace of 36% at 32% complete through Sunday. As elevator supplies are large, the lag is not seen as significant. Most of the progress was made in the ECB, as IA, MN, and the Dakotas are now lagging their average pace. Condition ratings were steady at 68% gd/ex and 374 on the Brugler500 Index. State by state ratings show IA dropping 11 points and NE down 5, with IL up 8 and MN 1 point higher. Analysts expect 18/19 world soybean stocks to be reported at 109.9 MMT by the USDA on Thursday, 1.64 MMT larger than the September total. An auction of Chinese state reserves saw 101,057 MT of soybeans sold on Wednesday, accounting for 100% of what was offered.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.49 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.63 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/4, down 13 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.89 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

Oct 18 Soybean Meal is at $310.40, down $3.10

Oct 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.97, down $0.36

Wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents lower on light profit taking, aided by a weaker dollar. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated that winter wheat planting was 57% complete vs. the 54% average, with emergence at 30%. State by state progress shows KS @ 58% complete (49% avg), with OK 60% and TX 54% planted, both ahead of normal. That may change with this week’s weather pattern. The average trade estimate for world wheat 18/19 ending stocks on Thursday is 261.2 MMT, which would be fairly stead with last month’s projection. US stocks will be higher, due to the September 28 data.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.11 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.17 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.91 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Live cattle futures are down 55 to 97 cents at midday. There were 63 deliveries against October futures due to the premium of futures to cash. Feeder cattle are down $.87 to $1.42. The CME feeder cattle index was up 30 cents on October 8 at $158.45. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were down 56 cents to $202.29, while Select boxes were 50 cents lower at $192.22. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 232,000 head through Tuesday. That was down 6,000 head from last week and 2,000 from the same week in 2017. The weekly FCE online auction saw 0 sales on the 1,246 head offered, with asks @ $111-113 and no bids.

Oct 18 Cattle are at $112.375, down $0.975,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $116.525, down $0.625,

Feb 19 Cattle are at $121.550, down $0.550,

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.075, down $0.875

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.325, down $1.175

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle are at $152.325, down $1.425

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330

Lean hog futures are down $.15 to $1.20 on economic concerns, with the US stock market again selling off. October needs to stick close to the cash index due to expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 3 cents on October 8 to $69.33. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 45 cents higher on Wednesday morning at $79.51. The loin was the only primal lower. The national base hog carcass value was 53 cents lower on Wednesday morning at $62.76. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 943,000 head WTD through Tuesday. That is up 16,000 head from last week and 24,000 head above than the same week last year.

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Oct 18 Hogs are at $68.600, down $0.150,

Dec 18 Hogs are at $56.000, down $0.575

Feb 19 Hogs are at $64.425, down $1.200

Cotton futures are up 36 to 50 points on a weaker US dollar and the risk of crop damage from the stronger than expected Hurricane Michael. The Tuesday edition of the weekly Crop Progress report showed that the US cotton crop had 78% of the bolls open (74% avg) and 25% harvested (18% avg). Georgia is in the path of Hurricane Michael (now a major Cat 4 hurricane!) and had 88% of their bolls open, with only 12% harvested. Ratings in TX were steady, with GA down 5 points. Cotlook A index was up 145 points from the previous day at 86.85 cents/lb on October 9. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 67.87 cents/lb, down 207 points from the previous week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Dec 18 Cotton is at 77.37, up 36 points,

Mar 19 Cotton is at 78.51, up 44 points

May 19 Cotton is at 79.39, up 50 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 80.000, up 46 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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