Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Tuesday session down 1 to 2 cents in most contracts, with traders squaring positions ahead of the Thursday reports. This morning’s delayed USDA Export Inspections report showed 1.351 MMT of corn shipped in the week that ended on October 4. That was more than double the same week last year but slightly lower than the week prior. Total accumulated exports are now 5.806 MMT (just over a month into the MY) and 62.1% larger than this time last year. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that 93% of the US corn crop was mature as of 10/7, outpacing the average by 10%. Harvest was 34% complete as of Sunday, with the normal pace at 26%. Condition ratings were down 1% to 68% in the good/ex categories, with the Brugler500 index down 2 at 373.

DEC 18 Corn closed at $3.64 1/2, down 2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, down 2 cents,

MAY 19 Corn closed at $3.83 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

JUL 19 Corn closed at $3.89, down 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330

Soybean futures saw losses of 5 to 7 cents in the front months on Tuesday. Nearby soy meal was down 70 cents/ton, while soy oil was down 36 points. Export inspections of soybeans during the week of 10/4 were 569,776 MT. That was just 38.22% of the same week last year and down 9.6% from the previous week. NASS showed that 91% of the US soy crop had leaves dropping (85% avg), with the harvest now lagging the average pace of 36% at 32% complete through Sunday. Condition ratings were steady at 68% gd/ex and 374 on the Brugler500 Index. Brazil’s Abiove expects the 18/19 soybean crop to be 119.5 MMT, with 2018 exports seen at 77 MMT and crush at 43.6 MMT. These are some of the lowest numbers we have seen recently for Brazil. CONAB will update their numbers on Thursday morning.

NOV 18 Soybeans closed at $8.63, down 6 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.76 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.89 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans closed at $9.02 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal closed at $313.50, down $0.70,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.97, down $0.36

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Wheat futures posted 1 to 2 cent gains in the nearby CBT and KC contracts, with MPLS up 3 to 4 1/2 cents. The USDA reported a private export sale of 120,000 MT of HRS wheat to Bangladesh for 18/19 delivery this morning. All wheat export inspections were tallied at 423,270 MT by the USDA for the week of October 4. That was 13.79% larger than the week prior and 19.14% above the same week in 2017. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated that winter wheat planting was 57% complete vs. the 54% average, with emergence at 30%. Japan’s MOA is seeking 115,685 MT of wheat from the US and Canada in the weekly tender, with 63,093 MT sourced from the US.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.15, up 1 cent,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.19 1/2, up 2 cents,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.93 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Live cattle futures were down 45 cents to $1.10 in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were 70 cents to $1.10 lower on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was up 30 cents on October 8 at $158.45. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 232,000 head through Tuesday. That was down 6,000 head from last week and 2,000 from the same week in 2017. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 6 cents to $202.85, while Select boxes were 91 cents higher at $192.72. US Beef exports during August were an all-time record 287.359 million pounds. That was up 9% from last year and 2.9% larger than July.

OCT 18 Cattle closed at $113.500, down $0.675,

DEC 18 Cattle closed at $117.400, down $0.850,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $122.400, down $0.475,

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $156.975, down $0.700

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $157.600, down $0.825

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.000, down $0.825

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330

Lean hog futures were mixed on Tuesday with front month Oct up 30 cents and other contracts lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 5 cents on October 5 to $69.36. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 13 cents higher on Tuesday afternoon at $79.06. The national base hog carcass value was 8 cents higher on Tuesday afternoon at $63.45. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 943,000 head WTD through Tuesday. That is up 16,000 head from last week and 24,000 head above than the same week last year. August pork exports were a monthly record 437.675 million pounds according to Census data converted by the USDA. That was 4.7% larger than last year and up 3% from July.

OCT 18 Hogs closed at $68.750, up $0.300,

DEC 18 Hogs closed at $56.575, down $0.975

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $65.625, down $1.575

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Cotton futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts down 30 to 54 points. The Tuesday edition of the weekly Crop progress report showed that the US cotton crop had 78% of the bolls open (74% avg) and 25% harvested (18% avg). Condition ratings were seen steady at 42% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 @ 321. Georgia is in the path of Hurricane Michael and had 88% of their bolls open, with only 12% harvested. Estimates ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA report are showing production down slightly from September. Cotlook A index was up 5 points from the previous day at 85.40 cents/lb on October 8. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 67.87 cents/lb, down 207 points from the previous week.

DEC 18 Cotton closed at 77.06, down 49 points

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 78.12, down 37 points

MAY 19 Cotton closed at 78.85, down 36 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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