Will Know PDQ!

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

In a few minutes, the USDA will release a monthly grain stocks report. The same report from a month ago was bearish with all grains doing a swan dive to much lower levels. Will history repeat itself? Will grain prices endure another swan dive? Only time will tell.


Here are a few of my comments in the morning broadcast of my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite.

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As you can see in the OPEN POSITIONS below, I wish to be long high protein wheat and short corn and soybeans. The report today will suggest to add to such positions or to exit. And my work hints loudly that the soybean yields will touch 50.1. Other than yours truly I know of no-one with such a lofty figure for soybeans. Should that figure be hit, soybeans will drop to $8.50.

Avoid the long side of corn and soybeans. Buy high protein wheat or spread the two markets.

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But the big story this week in my view is the waterfall break underway with bond prices this week that began on Friday, when the futures market posted a modest downside key reversal. From the Friday, high to the low today, December bond futures have dropped more than 3 full points.


On Sunday, night, only a few days ago, here is what I sent to my subscribers and brokerage clients regarding bonds.

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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


I continue to view the bond market as a bubble. But as you well know, my bond trading suggestions in recent weeks leave much to be desired. Still, tonight bond futures are down 17 points with December futures having a range of 156.27 to 156.19 with a last of 156.24.


If December bonds touch, kiss, fall below or violate 156.10 to the downside, a very sharp decline should unfold. Again, try to be short bonds and avoid the long side. Sales made tonight should be with stops at unchanged.


The time is 6:04 p.m. Chicago, on a Sunday night.

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And here is what I sent out regarding bonds today;

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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


December bond futures 23 lower at 155.10 with a low of 155.07. If the market closes below or trades much below 155.00, it could collapse to 153.00. Those short should sit tight but do not allow the market to rise to unchanged to higher. Nurse the short positions but at unchanged to higher things will get dicey for you.


The Dow is 76 higher but the Nasdaq is lower with the Russell up 2.50. If the Russell hits red it represents a downside key reversal. At unchanged in the Russell, try to be short with a stop at the high of the day.


Expect another email after the USDA report.


The time is 9:05 a.m. Chicago

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The USDA grain report is due in a few minutes. Will soybean yields touch my target of 50.1 per acre? Will bond prices drop to 153.00, PDQ? Stay tuned!


The time is 10.55 a.m. Chicago

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”