Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently down 6 1/2 to 6 3/4 cents at midday. The Monday morning USDA export inspections report showed 1.219 MMT of corn was shipped during the week of June 15. That was 1.33% below last week, but was 13.61% larger than last year at this time. This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show corn condition ratings 1%-2% higher from last week’s 67% g/e rating. The Commitment of Traders late Friday report showed spec funds lopping 120,829 contracts off their net short position in corn options and futures trading. As of Tuesday they had a net short position of -17,929 contracts. This Friday, China will sell 2.32 MMT of corn from state reserves.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.77 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.85 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.95 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $4.04 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents



Soybean futures are showing gains of 3 1/2 cents in the front months on Monday. July 17 soy meal is up $1.10, with soy oil 13 points higher in the front month. Soybean export inspections for the week of June 15 were lowered 46.17% from last week and 12.66% from a year ago to 275,461 MT. top end soybean condition ratings are seen by analysts as increasing 2% in this week’s report to 68% g/e. The CFTC reported that managed money spec funds backed off their net short position by 15,064 contracts as of June 13, to -79,673 contracts in soybean futures and option trading.Sources at the Soybean Export Council told Reuters that the Chinese buying team due in Iowa during July could commit to buying a record quantity of soybeans (>13.4 MMT). Such a large quantity would make the currently lagging new crop commitments look a lot more bullish, even if this is a frame agreement that takes months and months to sell and ship.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.42 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.46 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.48 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.53 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $302.00, up $1.10

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.24, up $0.13



Wheat futures are 2 to 5 1/4 cents in the green at midday, as the July CBT contract is the strongest. The weekly export inspections report showed wheat exports down 7.75% from last week at 801,725 MT, but still 29.37% larger than last year. Spring wheat conditions are seen as increasing in this week’s report, with the help of a few scattered storms last week. Some traders are thinking a 4-5% increase in the G/E ratings from last week’s 45%. Spec traders added 21,494 contracts to their net long position in KC wheat futures and options last week. In CBT futures and options, they reduced their net short position by 23,277 contracts. Thinly traded MPLS futures and options had 0 shorts in managed money for the second week in a row, as their net long position was 11,780 contracts last Tuesday night.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.70 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.78, up 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.44 3/4, up 2 cents



Live cattle futures are trading $1.10 to $1.725 lower on Monday on long liquidation. Feeder cattle futures are showing losses of $3.175 to $3.30. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.66 on June 15 at $151.07. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Monday morning report, with choice boxes $1.07 higher at $250.91. Select was up $2.62, with an average of $222.42. Cash sales started out last week in the $132-$134 range, but ended with sales of $128-$130 later in the week. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Saturday is 628,000 head, up 6,000 from last week and 22,000 head more than the same week a year ago.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $120.600, down $1.100,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $116.450, down $1.725,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $113.850, down $1.500,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $144.575, down $3.300

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $144.025, down $3.325

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $142.650, down $3.175



Lean hog futures are mostly $1.575 to $2.275 higher at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/15 was up another $1.13 to $84.06. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 41 cents lower in the morning report, with a weighted average of $95.22. The rib was slightly lower with the loin the only other primal lower, down $5.55. The national base hog carcass price was 67 cents higher with a weighted average of $85.30 in the morning report. Prices ranged from $80.00-$87.00. Through Saturday, week to date FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,179,000 head, 13,000 fewer than last week but now 27,000 head above last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $83.900, up $1.575,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $81.400, up $2.275

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.625, up $1.850



Cotton futures are down another 15 to 57 points today, after July posted losses of 5.03% last week. The new AWP is 67.31 cents/lb through Thursday, down 72 points from the previous week. China sold 19,500 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves on Monday, after selling 91,200 MT of the 150,200 MT offered last week. The COT report showed managed money continuing to decrease their net long position in cotton futures and options by 11,012 contracts to 68,915 contracts as of Tuesday. This is the smallest net long position for the funds since mid-November 2016. The Cotlook A index for June 16 was down 130 points to 83.40 cents/lb.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 71.68, down 20 points,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 70.71, down 15 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.81, down 55 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.850, down 57 points






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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