Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Friday with gains of 3 to 4 1/2 cents, as July lost 3 3/4 cents on the week. This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 120,000 MT to Mexico, through their daily reporting system. The Commitment of Traders report tonight showed spec funds lopping 120,829 contracts off their net short position in corn options and futures trading. As of Tuesday they had a net short position of -17,929 contracts. On Friday, China sold 1.254 MMT of corn from state reserves, most of which was from 2013, with 58.5% of the total 2.144 MMT offered sold. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 45% of the Argentine corn crop had been harvested as of Thursday. AgRural projects that 4.5% of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil is harvested, while leaving their estimate for production of the second crop at 67.1 MMT.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.84, up 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.92, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $4.02, up 4 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $4.11 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents

Soybean futures settled mostly 4 1/4 to 6 cents in the green on Friday. July 17 soy meal was up 30 cents, with soy oil 37 points higher in the front month. The CFTC reported that managed money backed off their net short position by 15,064 contracts as of June 13, to -79,673 contracts in soybean futures and option trading. The BAGE projects that soybean producers in Argentina have harvested 94.5% of their crop. Private Chinese traders are estimating that the PRC may start auctioning soybeans from state reserves in the next few weeks. Analysts with COFCO project lower August and September soybean imports for China of 7MMT and 6MMT respectively. Some Chinese crush plants are reporting that meal storage is full.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.39, up 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.43 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.45, up 5 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.57, up 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $300.90, up $0.30,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.11, up $0.37

Wheat futures finished the week with daily gains of mostly 7 1/2 to 12 1/2 cents on Friday. All exchanges saw positive gains on the week, with MPLS up 5.98%. KC and CBT were up 4.87% and 4.37% in their respective July contracts. Spec traders added 21,494 contracts to their net long position in KC wheat futures and options last week. In CBT futures and options, they reduced their net short position by 23,277 contracts. Thinly traded MPLS futures and options have 0 shorts in managed money for the second week in a row, as their net long position is 11,780 contracts. Winter wheat yields are all over the place. Some are “higher than expected” according to one southeast Kansas farmer, with producers in western KS claiming to have lost acres to Wheat Streak Mosaic. Keep in mind that expectations are muted due to known frost and snow damage. Exports for the 17/18 marketing year are expected to drop 3.3% yr/yr to 50.4 MMT for combined Russian, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan exports.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.65 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.73 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.42 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures posted gains of 20 to 67.5 cents in the back months, as June, down 7.28% on the week, was 80 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were 42.5 to 97.5 cents in the green on Friday, after a week that saw August drop 4.09% The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.66 on June 15 at $151.07. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, with choice boxes 10 cents higher at $249.84. Select was down 73 cents, with an average of $219.80. Cash sales this week have been in the $130 range in the North, with $128 in the South. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through tomorrow is 628,000 head, up 6,000 from last week and 22,000 head more than the same week a year ago.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $121.700, down $0.800,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $118.175, up $0.675,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $115.350, up $0.650,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.875, up $0.800

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.350, up $0.950

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.825, up $0.975

Lean hog futures ended mixed on Friday as July was 27.5 cents higher and back months as much as 80 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/14 was up another 83 cents to $82.93. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 73 cents higher in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $95.63. The picnic was the only primal cut lower. The national base hog carcass price was 75 cents lower with a weighted average of $84.72 in the afternoon report. Prices ranged from $79.00-$86.00. Through Saturday, week to date FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,179,000 head, 13,000 fewer than last week but now 27,000 head above last year.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $82.325, up $0.275,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $79.125, up $0.200

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $66.775, down $0.425

Cotton futures came back to end the day with losses of 3 to 36 points in the front months, as deferred contracts were 5 to 54 points higher. July posted a loss of 5.03% on the week. The new AWP is 67.31 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 72 points from the previous week. China sold 18,900 MT of the 30,200 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves on Friday. On the week they sold 91,200 MT of the 150,200 MT offered. The Cotlook A index for June 15 was 80 points lower to 84.70 cents/lb. The COT report showed managed money continuing to decrease their net long position in cotton futures and options by 11,012 contracts to 68,915 contracts as of Tuesday. This is the smallest net long position since mid-November 2016.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 71.880, down 3 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 70.860, down 36 points

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 69.420, down 2 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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