Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are up 1 1/2 to 2 1/4 cents in the nearby contracts at midday. This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 120,000 MT to Mexico, through their daily reporting system. Total corn export commitments (to June 8) were 19.92% above last year at this point. They are 97% of the USDA projected export total slightly lagging the average of 98%. Satellite imagery company Planalytics estimates 2017 US corn yield at 166.9 bu/ac, down 0.5 bu/ac from their previous estimate. On Friday, China sold 1.254 MMT of corn from state reserves, most of which was from 2013, as 58.5% of the total 2.144 MMT offered was sold. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 45% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested as of Thursday.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.81 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.89 1/2, up 2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.99 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $4.08 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

Soybean futures are trading fractionally higher on Friday. July 17 soy meal is down $1, with soy oil 34 points higher in the front month. Planalytics lowered their 2017 US soybean yield estimate 0.2 bu/ac to 46.8 bu/ac.. Export commitments for 2016/17 soybeans are 106% of the USDA export estimate, well above the average of 100% for this date and last year’s 97%. Compared to last year, they are 19.6% larger YTD. The BAGE projects that soybean producers in Argentina have harvested 94.5% of their crop. Private Chinese traders are estimating that the PRC may start auctioning soybeans from state reserves in the next few weeks. Analysts with COFCO project lower August and September soybean imports for China of 7MMT and 6MMT respectively. Some Chinese plants are reporting that meal storage is full.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.35 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.39 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.40 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.44 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $299.60, down $1.00

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.08, up $0.34

Wheat futures are currently 7 to 8 3/4 cents in the green in the KC and MPLS front months at midday. CBT is mostly 11 to 11 3/4 cents higher. Wheat export commitments are just 7% above the 16/17 commitments. When comparing to the USDA projected export total, they are 26% complete, vs. the average (and last year’s) 25% for this week. Winter wheat yields are all over the place. Some are “higher than expected” according to one southeast Kansas farmer, with producers in western KS claiming to have lost acres to Wheat Streak Mosaic. Keep in mind that expectations are muted due to known frost and snow damage. Exports for the 17/18 marketing year are expected to drop 3.3% yr/yr to 50.4 MMT for combined Russian, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan exports.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.65, up 11 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.74, up 8 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.41 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures are showing losses of 37.5 cents in nearby June, with back months higher Feeder cattle futures are currently 67.5 to 90 cents higher The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.19 on June 14 at $152.73. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the morning report, with choice boxes 13 cents higher at $249.87. Select was down 86 cents, with an average of $219.67. Cash sales this week have been in the $130 range in the North, with $128 in the South. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 467,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and 24,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Currently the total US export commitments for 2017 are 11.9% above last year.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $122.125, down $0.375,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $118.100, up $0.600,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $115.300, up $0.600,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.750, up $0.675

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.300, up $0.900

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $145.725, up $0.875

Lean hog futures are mixed at midday, with the nearby contracts 32.5 to 57.5 cents higher, as deferred contracts are lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/14 was up another 83 cents to $82.93. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 65 cents higher in the morning report, with a weighted average of $95.55. The loin was the only primal cut lower. The national base hog carcass price was 15 cents lower with a weighted average of $83.82 in the morning report. Prices ranged from $78.00-$85.00. Through Thursday, estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1,710,000 head, 44,000 fewer than last week but now 5,000 head above last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $82.625, up $0.575,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $79.250, up $0.325

Oct 17 Hogs are at $66.800, down $0.400

Cotton futures are trading 41 to 79 points lower on Friday. Total upland cotton export commitments are 65.3% larger than last year. They are 103% of the USDA, projected export total, vs. 100% last year and the average of 105%. The new AWP is 67.31 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 72 points from the previous week. China sold 18,900 MT of the 30,200 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves on Friday. The Cotlook A index for June 15 was 80 points lower to 84.70 cents/lb.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 71.12, down 79 points,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 70.7, down 52 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.91, down 56 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 69.030, down 41 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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