Ag Market Commentary
Corn futures are currently 1 to 3 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday action, after settling 10 to 10 3/4 cents lower on Monday. There was sizeable long liquidation in the July contract yesterday, with some new selling interest in Sep and Dec according to preliminary open interest. In yesterday morning’s export inspections report, the USDA showed 1.042 MMT of corn was exported during the week of June 8. That is 11.52% lower than last week and 39.02% behind a year ago. The weekly Crop Progress report last night showed that 94% of the US corn crop was emerged as of Sunday, even with the average and 1% lower than last year. Corn ratings were down 1% to 67% good/excellent. The Brugler500 index rating was 367, down 4 from last week and 18 points below the same time last year.

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents per bushel higher this morning. They posted losses of mostly 10 cents in the nearby contracts on Monday. Preliminary open interest was up 2860 contracts. Soy meal was down $4.10 in the front month, with July 17 soy oil 35 points lower.The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 508,220 MT. That is an improvement of 77.11% from the previous week and nearly 2.5 times as large as last year. The 2016/17 exports YTD have been 286.24 million bushels larger than 2015/16 on this date. South America may have huge inventories, but the US is still shipping. Soybean planting progress advanced to 92% complete as of Sunday, 5% ahead of the average and 1% above last year. Soybeans are tied with last year at 77% emerged, which is 4% further along than the average. The initial condition ratings showed soybeans are nationally 66% g/e, vs. 74 last year. The Brugler500 index was 368 points, 13 points worse than last year.

Wheat futures are a nickel higher in Chicago SRW, up 8 to 9 in KC HRW and up 10 to 15 cents in MPLS spring wheat. They were mostly 7 to 11 3/4 cents lower in the KC and CBT contracts on Monday, with MPLS down 2 3/4 to 6 cents. The first full week of the 2017/18 wheat marketing year showed 773,992 MT of wheat inspected for export. That is 47.62% larger than last year and 89.84% above the same week a year ago. The USDA reported that 92% of the winter wheat crop is headed, vs. the average of 91% and last year’s 95%. In addition, 17% is harvested, up from the average of 15%. Overall the winter wheat crop is rated at 50% g/e up 1% wk/wk with the Brugler500 at 337, unchanged from last week. Spring wheat is 95% emerged, vs. the average of 92%. Ratings dropped as expected to 45% g/e, down 10% wk/wk and 34% yr/yr. The Brugler500 rating is at 325, down a huge 25 points from last week. Minneapolis futures jumped by double digits overnight on the news that South Dakota in particular was in much worse shape than had been factored into prices. Egypt’s GASC is tendering an unspecified amount of wheat for delivery on July 15-25. Results are expected later today.

Live cattle futures posted losses of $1.675 to $2.90 in the front months on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down $2.40 to $2.625. The CME feeder cattle index was down 76 cents on June 9 at $154.15. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Monday afternoon report, with choice boxes up $1.31 at $252.52. Select was up $1.48, with an average of $221.77. Cash cattle trade was around $137 last week, mostly steady with the previous week. Estimated FI cattle slaughter on Monday was 117,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and +7,000 head from the same week a year ago. The protocol to export US beef to China was finalized on Monday.

Lean hog futures ended Monday down 50 cents to as much as $2.05 in the summer contracts. Some 2018 contracts closed higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/8 was up another 61 cents to $80. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 69 cents higher in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $93.14. The national base hog carcass price was 62 cents higher with a weighted average of $77.22 in the afternoon report. Estimated FI hog slaughter on Monday was 411,000 head, 29,000 fewer than last week and 14,000 head below last year.

Cotton futures are 25 to 35 points lower this morning. They closed 5 to 56 points in the red on Monday. The AWP for this week is 68.03 cents/lb. Cotton conditions improved 5% on the week to 66% in the good or excellent categories. The more comprehensive Brugler500 rating was 372, up 9 points. As of Sunday, the crop was 92% planted, vs. 87 last year and the average of 90%. The crop was 15% squared, matching last year and the average of 12%. On Monday, China sold 20,300 MT of the 29,900 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves. Friday’s USDA supply and demand report showed projected 2017/18 US exports being lowered 500,000 bales to 13.5 million bales.

Market Commentary provided by:

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